This latest crypto cycle has been the hardest to navigate for even the most experienced crypto traders. No real Altcoin season has transpired, maybe best reflected by the fact that over 2 years into it, Ethereum still has not seen a new All-Time-High. That is not to say that there have not been winners. Hyperliquid, the ‘decentralized’ perpetuals exchange has taken the market by storm. The word ‘decentralized’ is in inverted commas as the extent of decentralization for the platform is debatable but starting with UX and product first, and arguably bringing in decentralization later, has so far proven to be winning strategy. The performance of the project’s native token HYPE has been one of the few bright lights in this market.
HYPE, the token, launched in what is an immaculate conception in crypto terms: no VCs who got in at better price levels, an airdrop that heavily rewarded the community, revenue-driven token buybacks. The project is a case-study on how to succeed in today’s crypto world. Perpetuals trading is one of the core use-cases for crypto. Enabling perpetuals trading for jurisdictions where it is banned for retail via ‘decentralization’ is regulatory arbitrage at its best. Luckily, regulation-wise, the stars seem to have aligned. At the same time, crypto traders have been overwhelmed by large supplies of tokens dumped on the market at unfavorable terms for retail investors. Non-crypto retail on the other hand has been burned one too many times by mingling in our industry and has so far stayed out. Consequently, the vast majority of crypto tokens has simply not gone anywhere in this cycle so far.
Where non-crypto retail funds go becomes visible when looking at the performance of various stock indices, pennystocks and even crypto-related stocks including Microstrategy. Even despite economic uncertainty and war, stocks are at all-time highs. On the institutional side, funds and tradfi have been playing the crypto-leverage game via instruments they are familiar with. We have spoken about Michael Saylor’s strategy of borrowing funds to buy more Bitcoin many times in this newsletter previously. Other companies have copied the Microstrategy playbook in increasing numbers. 151 publicly traded companies now hold Bitcoin.
Meanwhile, the less ‘degen’ side of tradfi has focused its attention on stablecoins. The so-called ‘GENIUS’ Act to regulate stablecoins has just passed the US Senate with bi-partisan support. The performance of Circle’s stock after its recent IPO is the best example for the growing Tradfi excitement over Stablecoins. A 5x return in a little over a week may remind crypto traders of happier days. It is certainly not the norm in Tradfi world. Stripe, the Fintech giant, has been acquiring crypto infra players including Bridge and Privy. Shopify has enabled stablecoin payments. Adoption comes slowly, then all at once.
As the worlds of crypto and Tradfi continue to merge, opportunities for traders will continue to present themselves. We may be facing a quieter period in crypto markets right now. But the lessons of HYPE’s immaculate conception are being studied by teams and founders around the industry. Inevitably, the possibilities of permission-less onchain finance will sooner or later lure back the traders. Until then, good luck looking for the next hype.