Groundhog Day?

If you are used to fast-moving Crypto markets, 2022 must feel to you like a never-ending groundhog day. After significant moves all the way up to $69k and back down to $30k in 2021, Bitcoin has been trading inside what seems to be a fairly ‘boring’ range between $36k and $48k since the start of 2022.

This range-trading could also be observed in the summer of 2021, when markets were experiencing a rather dull period. That time was followed by a major move up.

Such periods of relative calm can be a great time for accumulation. Once BTC broke out of its range-trading period in 2020, the subsequent growth dwarfed all price movements that had happened before. Anyone who has been around Crypto markets longer, also knows that such moves tend to align with Bitcoin Halving events. The next one is scheduled for 2024.

But this is little comfort for many traders who came into crypto because they crave the ‘action’ of a fast-moving, extremely volatile market. For them, a period like this is truly the ‘maximum pain’ scenario. No clear trend is visible and bulls and bears argue and claim premature victory, only to be taken out by reality when the next market move goes into the opposite direction.

Without a doubt, groundhog day will come to an end sooner or later. With the global macro climate still looking challenging and with a looming recession, risks remain on the downside. Yet, if you zoom out, so far Bitcoin has never disappointed us over the medium to long-term.

Maybe the lesson here is the same as the one from the actual movie ‘Groundhog Day’: the endless repetition of the same day only ended once the main character Bill Murray had become a truly better person. Now isn’t that a great inspiration for us all to become better traders?