Swinging Twenties

The last two weeks have seen a much welcomed rebound in Crypto markets. Just when total doom and gloom was threatening to take over, no additional rate tightening news from the Federal Reserve and the possibility of a coming resolution of the Russia-Ukraine war seem to have lifted market spirits. The recent announcement by the Luna Foundation that it has purchased more than $1bn of Bitcoin since January to strengthen its reserves has certainly helped as well.

Unfortunately, the pure fundamentals and macro risks have not changed. Inflation remains at levels last seen in the 1970s which raises the possibility of further Central Bank rate hikes. Meanwhile, war and sanctions are driving up commodities prices, specifically energy and wheat, which threatens the first full-on global recession since 2008.

The theme for 2022 remains the ‘swinging twenties’: we go up, then down, then up again but without ever seeing a real breakout. It’s a great environment for swing traders but terrible for the impatient traders who risk getting chopped up in the ups and downs. Nobody has a crystal ball but expecting new all-time-highs soon would seem far-fetched given the existing economic risks all-round. Then again, crypto always finds ways to surprise us. Hopefully by continuing the push upwards.