Famous stock investor Warren Buffet once said: ‘When the Tide Goes Out, You Find Out Who Was Swimming Naked’. Only a few weeks back under the title ‘Ponzi Or DeFi’ we spoke about the popular stable coin UST, part of the LUNA ecosystem, that was receiving significant attention due to its 20% APY on a stablecoin. This week, UST’s peg to the Dollar came under attack and collapsed. The LUNA token, 1-1 redeemable vs UST,…
Another market cycle with little market movement and another movie reference: in Director Jonathan Demme’s famous ‘The Silence of the Lambs’, the main character is shocked to discover that the ‘silent’ lambs are brought to the slaughterhouse. Markets remain in an unusually quiet ‘wait-and-see’ mode. Bitcoin dominance has failed to break out from a narrow range for nearly a year. Crypto total market cap has barely flinched in 2022. Yet, in the background, dark clouds…
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If you are used to fast-moving Crypto markets, 2022 must feel to you like a never-ending groundhog day. After significant moves all the way up to $69k and back down to $30k in 2021, Bitcoin has been trading inside what seems to be a fairly ‘boring’ range between $36k and $48k since the start of 2022. This range-trading could also be observed in the summer of 2021, when markets were experiencing a rather dull period.…
The last two weeks have seen a much welcomed rebound in Crypto markets. Just when total doom and gloom was threatening to take over, no additional rate tightening news from the Federal Reserve and the possibility of a coming resolution of the Russia-Ukraine war seem to have lifted market spirits. The recent announcement by the Luna Foundation that it has purchased more than $1bn of Bitcoin since January to strengthen its reserves has certainly helped as well.…
Technological breakthroughs are all about timing. Dropbox famously benefited from launching at the time when the first Smartphones started emerging and suddenly file-syncing between devices started to matter. Virtual Reality is slowly grinding its way towards adoption with new devices coming out. Similarly, Cryptocurrencies emerged at just the right time. In the aftermath of the Financial Crisis of 2008, the trust in traditional financial institutions was damaged whilst loose monetary policies encouraged a generational run-up…
To casual observers, much of today’s Decentralized Finance (DeFi) might look like a collection of Ponzi Schemes. Projects bootstrap by offering high APYs for their token and design complex systems around them to attract DeFi power users who are rushing in to capture short-term high returns. The high APY leads to more and more tokens being released which in turn destroys the price of the project’s coin and leads to a long decline. This sounds…
Bear markets are normally the time when traders overreact to any piece of bad news. Events that would barely cause a flinch in a bullish market can drive markets down significantly in a bear. It is therefore somewhat unexpected to watch the resilience of crypto prices over the past days. Despite an ongoing war, the confirmed spectre of incoming Federal Reserve rate hikes and increasing regulatory pressure coming from the US and elsewhere, BTC, ETH…
When the world is on fire, it is not a good time to talk about prices. There are more important things in the world. Those things however go beyond the scope of this newsletter and markets do not sleep. Global markets, whether crypto or equities, have seen major drops over the past 24h as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine kicked off. Crypto’s Market Cap dropped more than 10% within minutes when events first started to unfold.…
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Crypto and decentralized finance (DeFi) have garnered massive popularity across the globe over the last two years. The promise for a high return on investment is one of the primary factors that lure people to invest in new coin launches and DeFi projects. Like any other new lucrative technology, the two industries have a fair share of bad actors and scammers who target investors that are not familiar with the industry or just interested in…
NFTs, also jokingly referred to as ‘JPEGs’ in the crypto community, have entered the mainstream. Whether it’s at dinner conversations, celebrities using Ape NFTs as their Profile Picture on social media or big brands like Coca Cola launching NFT collectibles, NFTs are clearly the ‘flavor of the day’. The chart above shows how searches for NFTs have surpassed searches for BTC and are well ahead of Blockchain and DeFi. Why should this be of interest…
News that US Law Enforcement have seized 94,000 Bitcoin worth $3.5 billion that had been stolen in a Bitfinex hack back in 2016 could have easily spooked the markets. Not only does it once again bring cryptocurrencies into the spotlight in relation to hacks and frauds, but the expectation is also that US authorities will auction off the seized Bitcoin right into the market. Yet, over the last days markets have continued to rally. So are…
The rally of the past few days might have reignited your hopes that the Bull market is back. Some of the top 20 coins like Ethereum or Solana have seen 15%+ growth over that period. Are we going back to Up-Only market conditions? The chart above says otherwise. ‘Wait’, you might be thinking. What does Meta’s, Facebook’s parent company’s, unprecedented 25%, $237bn 1-day crash have to do with Crypto? The answer is: Even if we…
According to English Philosopher; John Locke, everything is in a state of flux. This statement is ever true for the payments and global financial systems where things have changed significantly in the last ten years. Humans have increasingly discovered convenient, secure, and instantaneous payment options with extensive innovation. Due to these innovations, the traditional banking system has faced many disruptions from startups and big tech companies. These “disruptions” have led to widespread and efficient cross-border…
Markets have somewhat recovered following no unexpected tightening announcements coming out of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting that was hotly awaited. However, the relief bounce has already run out of steam. It seems the broader mood in the market remains pessimistic for now. The main question now is: how low can we go? In the 2021 summer low, BTC briefly touched the $30k level, and below on some exchanges, just to bounce back…
Have you heard of Ghost-chains? Those are projects that were briefly hyped at the late stages of previous bull market cycles, only to then disappear into obscurity shortly thereafter. You can see the chart of a Ghost-chain above. It temporarily enjoyed some hype back in 2017/18 but never recovered from the bust and failed to gain any sort of adoption over the years. Why does this matter today? Because to understand the late stage of…
As goes January, so goes the rest of the year is a Wall Street saying that has only been wrong 10 times since 1950. How much does this apply to Crypto markets? In January 2021, the Crypto total market cap grew about 28%.In January 2020, the same metric saw 36% growth. On the other hand, deep Crypto Winter started in 2018 – the total market cap was down 20% in January of that year. If…
In many ways, the stock market is similar to its crypto counterpart, and as such, observing the stock market is a good way to learn how the crypto market works. It’s safe to say that cryptocurrency is a “not-so-direct” replica of the stock market. This is why they both use a number of similar terms, one of which is “going short”. Going short in simple terms is selling a coin high then buying it back…
It is not a secret these days that Markets are addicted to cheap Central Bank money. Any indication that rates could tighten and cheap money might become marginally more expensive has been enough to put shivers into any asset class. This happened back in May 2021, it is now happening at an even faster rate and explains the strong downturn over the past days. As much as we would like crypto markets to be disconnected from…